Decision Making Models
Includes: Judgment, Logical Reasoning, Fairness, Removing Bias
Decision making is the engine of your startup. Your life and your company become the sum of the calls you make. Good judgment is not a gift, it is a process for clearing mental fog, avoiding bias, and using frameworks so you do not just react to the loudest problem.
Founder rule: speed matters, but clarity matters more.
Defining the core pillars
Judgment: combining experience with data to make a call when the correct path is not obvious.
Logical reasoning: checking that your conclusion actually follows from your premises.
Fairness: decisions based on clear criteria, not politics. This protects morale and trust.
Removing bias: noticing shortcuts your brain takes, then forcing a more objective process.
What you should learn
Eisenhower matrix: separate urgent from important, so you build fireproofing, not only fight fires.
Second-order thinking: ask “and then what” multiple times to see long-term damage or upside.
Sunk cost fallacy: ignore what you already spent, decide based on future cost vs future reward.
OODA loop: observe, orient, decide, act. The faster your loop, the faster you learn.
How to learn it
Key idea: decision quality improves when you keep an audit trail.
A. Decision journal
Write the situation, the decision, expected outcome, and your emotional state. Review later to see patterns.
B. 10-10-10 rule
Ask how you will feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. This removes emotion noise.
C. Assigned devil’s advocate
Give one person the job of finding failure modes. This fights groupthink.
D. Study “Thinking, Fast and Slow”
Learn when your gut is a shortcut and when you must slow down into deliberate thinking.
Intuition vs model-based decisions
| Situation | Intuitive | Model-based |
|---|---|---|
| Speed | Instant, feels right | Slower, checks logic |
| Hiring | I liked the vibe | They hit the scorecard |
| Pivot | I am bored, change | CAC is above LTV |
| Crisis | Reactive panic | Evaluate best alternatives |